International observation： there are many obstacles for the United States to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia
Xinhua News Agency, Jerusalem, September 10th (International Observation) There are many obstacles for the United States to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia
Xinhua News Agency reporter Lu Yingxu Zhang Tianlang
Recently, the United States has stepped up its mediation efforts in the Middle East in an attempt to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as soon as possible. Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said that Israel is "closer to reaching a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia than ever before".
Analysts pointed out that the United States has its geostrategic and domestic political considerations in promoting the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. Israel has previously normalized relations with Arab countries in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. A breakthrough in relations with Saudi Arabia, a big power in the Middle East, will further change the political pattern in the Middle East. However, the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia still faces many obstacles, and it is difficult to "do it overnight" in the short term.
American calculation
This is the White House filmed in Washington, DC on January 20th. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie photo
The United States has recently increased its contacts with Israel, Saudi Arabia and Palestine. It is reported that a senior Israeli diplomatic delegation visited the United States a few days ago to discuss the outline of the agreement on the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. US Secretary of State Blinken telephoned Israeli and Palestinian leaders respectively to discuss issues related to the agreement on normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Brett McGurk, Coordinator of Middle East and North Africa Affairs of US National Security Council, and Barbara Reeve, Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, also visited Saudi Arabia to make contact with Saudi Arabia and Palestine.
Analysts believe that the primary reason why the United States has been promoting the establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in the near future is that it has been "stimulated" by the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Joel Guzansky, a senior researcher at Israel’s National Security Institute, pointed out that the United States is aware of the urgency of restoring its influence in the Middle East and hopes to strengthen its relations with its Middle East allies by promoting the normalization of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations.
At the same time, some analysts pointed out that the United States is about to hold a general election in 2024, and the Biden administration, which has done little in the Middle East, hopes to show its diplomatic achievements and prepare for the general election.
In addition, Ayal Pinko, a senior researcher at the Bei Jing-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel, believes that the United States also has its economic interests in re-strengthening its relations with Saudi Arabia, "trying to recapture the lost Saudi market in arms sales".
Appeal to sand
Among the Arab countries, six countries have normalized their relations with Israel, including Egypt and Jordan, which established diplomatic relations in the 1970s and 1990s respectively, and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, which have normalized their relations under the mediation of the Trump administration since 2020.
For Israel, it is the strategic goal of successive governments to normalize relations with more Arab countries and improve the living environment and development space in the Middle East. Since the normalization of relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries, Saudi Arabia has become the next goal of the Israeli government. Guzanski believes that if Israel can normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, it will further change the pattern of the Middle East and may lead more Arab countries to follow suit.
In addition, Israel regards Iran as its main rival in the region, and the formation of an "anti-Iran alliance" with Saudi Arabia is also part of the "Middle East NATO" planned by Israel and the United States.
From the perspective of Saudi Arabia, the country is currently committed to promoting regional reconciliation and creating an external environment conducive to development. In March this year, Saudi Arabia normalized its relations with Iran, and later supported Syria’s return to the League of Arab States and closer relations with Turkey. If relations with Israel are normalized, it will further improve the regional environment of Saudi Arabia, and it will also help Saudi Arabia to acquire Israel’s advanced technology and strengthen cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, so as to better serve Saudi Arabia’s "Vision 2030".
There are many obstacles
This is the night view of Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, taken on December 4, 2022. Xinhua News Agency reporter Yan Xiankai photo
Although Foreign Minister Cohen is optimistic about reaching a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, there are still many obstacles to achieve this diplomatic breakthrough.
In the normalization of relations with Israel, the first condition for Saudi Arabia is that Israel must make concessions on the Palestinian issue, accept the Arab Peace Initiative put forward by Saudi Arabia and other countries in 2002, and recognize the "two-state plan". At the same time, Saudi Arabia also hopes that the United States will assist it in implementing its civilian nuclear program and sell it advanced weapons. However, from the current situation, it is very difficult to meet the conditions of Saudi Arabia.
On the Palestinian issue, the current Israeli government, which is composed of right-wing and far-right forces, is known as the "rightmost government in history". It has a tough stance on Palestine, does not recognize the Palestinian state, and advocates the expansion of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
For Saudi Arabia, if it can’t win Israel’s concessions on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, it will be difficult to deal with domestic anti-Israeli public opinion and it will also be contrary to its identity as a leader of the Islamic world. Saad Abdulla Hameed, a Saudi political analyst, said that Saudi Arabia believes that it has the ability to play a role in solving the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and it has a "greater obligation" to this end. "The difficulty of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel is currently focused on the Palestinian issue".
On the issue of U.S. arms exports to Saudi Arabia, Israel has always hoped to maintain its military superiority in the region, opposed the sale of high-tech weapons by the United States to Saudi Arabia, and worried that Saudi Arabia would use the civilian nuclear technology it acquired to manufacture nuclear weapons. Israeli government officials have repeatedly stated that they will not make any concessions that will harm Israel’s security on the issue of establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.
In addition, Saudi Arabia is currently implementing a foreign policy of stabilizing its neighbors and maintaining a balance among major powers, seeking more partnerships, accelerating the pace of "going eastward", and weakening its enthusiasm for the "anti-Iranian alliance" advocated by the United States and Israel.
In view of the above reasons, Hamid believes that it is unlikely to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the short term.