How is the value of palm oil formed？ What are the factors that form this value？

2024年12月20日 | admin | gdfghf

Palm oil, as one of the most important edible oils in the world, is influenced by many factors. These factors include not only supply and demand, production cost, but also international trade policy, climate change and market sentiment.

First of all, the relationship between supply and demand is the core factor that determines the value of palm oil. The main producers of palm oil include Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for most of the world’s total output. When the output of these countries increases, the supply on the market also increases, which may lead to a decline in prices. On the contrary, if the output decreases, such as due to natural disasters or decreased planting area, the decrease in supply will push up the price.

Secondly, the production cost is also an important factor affecting the value of palm oil. The production cost of palm oil includes planting, harvesting, processing and transportation. For example, the increase in the prices of fertilizers and pesticides will increase the cost of planting, while the increase in labor costs will affect the harvesting and processing links. The increase in these costs will eventually be reflected in the price of palm oil.

International trade policy also has a profound impact on the value of palm oil. Governments may influence the import and export of palm oil through tariffs, quotas or other trade barriers. For example, if a major consumer imposes a high tariff on palm oil, it will increase the import cost and thus push up the domestic price. On the contrary, if the policy encourages imports, prices may fall.

Climate change is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Palm oil production is highly dependent on suitable climatic conditions. Drought, flood or other extreme weather events may have a negative impact on the growth of palm trees, thus reducing production. For example, El Nino phenomenon may lead to drought in Southeast Asia, which will further affect the output and price of palm oil.

Market sentiment and investor expectations will also affect the value of palm oil. Speculation in the futures market and investors’ expectations of the future supply and demand will have short-term fluctuations in prices. For example, if the market expects tight supply in the future, investors may buy palm oil futures in large quantities, thus pushing up the price.

In order to show the influence of these factors on palm oil value more clearly, the following table lists the factors and their possible influence directions:

influencing factor Possible direction of influence relation between supply and demand Increase in supply/decrease in demand → decrease in price; Reduced supply/increased demand → price increase cost of production Cost increase → price increase; Cost reduction → price reduction international trade policy Increased trade barriers → rising prices; Trade barriers reduced → prices fell. climate change Extreme weather events → price fluctuations Market sentiment Investor expectations → Short-term price fluctuations

To sum up, the value formation of palm oil is a complex process, involving multiple interacting variables. It is very important for investors and market participants to understand these factors and their interrelationships, which will help them make more informed decisions in the futures market.

(Editor: He Xian)

[Disclaimer] This article only represents the author’s own views and has nothing to do with Hexun. Hexun.com is neutral about the statements and opinions in this article, and does not provide any express or implied guarantee for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the contents. Readers are requested for reference only, and please take full responsibility. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com.