National Bureau of Statistics: In the first half of 2018, China’s GDP increased by 6.8% year-on-year
International Online Report: According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 41,896.1 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year at comparable prices. Quarterly, it increased by 6.8% in the first quarter and 6.7% in the second quarter, and remained in the range of 6.7%-6.9% for 12 consecutive quarters. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 2,208.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; The added value of the secondary industry was 16,929.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 22,757.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%.
First, the agricultural planting structure is optimized and the production situation is better.
With the adjustment of grain planting structure, the national summer grain harvest is expected to be good. The structural reform of agricultural supply side deepened, and the planting area of cotton and soybean increased. Animal husbandry production is stable. In the first half of the year, the output of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat was 39.95 million tons, up 0.9% year-on-year; Among them, the output of pork was 26.14 million tons, an increase of 1.4%. The number of live pigs was 409.04 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; 334.22 million pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 1.2%.
II. Industrial growth was generally stable and the structure continued to be optimized.
In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point compared with the first quarter. In terms of economic types, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year, collective enterprises decreased by 1.9%, joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.7%, and foreign-invested enterprises from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 6.2%. In terms of three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 10.5%. The added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing increased by 11.6% and 9.2% respectively, which was 4.9 and 2.5 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year on year. From January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 2,729.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; The profit rate of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.36%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points over the same period of last year.
Third, the service industry grew rapidly, and emerging service industries flourished.
In the first half of the year, the national service industry production index increased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point compared with the first quarter, maintaining a relatively fast growth rate. Among them, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services maintained rapid growth. In June, the national service industry production index increased by 8.0% year-on-year. From January to May, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 13.3% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than the same period of last year; Among them, the operating income of strategic emerging service industry, science and technology service industry and high-tech service industry increased by 18.1%, 17.5% and 15.4% respectively, which were 2.4, 5.0 and 4.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
Four, residents’ consumption and market sales increased steadily, and consumption upgraded goods grew rapidly.
In the first half of the year, the per capita consumption expenditure of the national residents was 9,609 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.8% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, and a real increase of 6.7% after deducting the price factor, 1.3 percentage points faster. Among them, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 6.8% in nominal terms, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points; The per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents increased by 12.2% in nominal terms, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 180018 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with the first quarter. According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 15,409.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 2,592.7 billion yuan, up by 10.5%. According to consumption types, catering revenue was 1,945.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9%; Retail sales of commodities reached 16,056.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%. The sales of consumption-upgrading commodities grew rapidly, with household appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment and cosmetics of units above designated size increasing by 10.6%, 10.6% and 14.2% respectively, 0.2, 0.5 and 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. In June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.0% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than last month.
5. Investment in fixed assets grew steadily, while private investment and manufacturing investment rebounded.
In the first half of the year, China’s investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 29,731.6 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Among them, private investment was 18,453.9 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. In terms of industries, investment in the primary industry increased by 13.5%; Investment in the secondary industry increased by 3.8%, of which manufacturing investment increased by 6.8%, and the growth rate rebounded for three consecutive months, 3.0 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter and 1.3 percentage points faster than that in the same period of last year; Investment in the tertiary industry increased by 6.8%, of which investment in infrastructure increased by 7.3%. Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 13.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.1 percentage points faster than the total investment. In the first half of the year, the national investment in real estate development was 5,553.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The national commercial housing sales area was 771.43 million square meters, up by 3.3%. The national sales of commercial housing reached 6,694.5 billion yuan, up by 13.2%.
6. The surplus of import and export of goods narrowed and the trade structure continued to improve.
In the first half of the year, the total import and export volume of goods was 14,122.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among them, exports reached 7,512 billion yuan, up 4.9%; Imports reached 6,610.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%. Imports and exports offset each other, with a surplus of 901.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.7% over the same period of last year. The trade structure was further optimized, and the import and export of general trade increased by 12.2%, accounting for 59% of the total import and export, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period of last year. The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 7%, accounting for 58.6% of the total export. Imports and exports to the top three trading partners maintained growth. China’s imports and exports to the European Union, the United States and ASEAN increased by 5.3%, 5.2% and 11% respectively, accounting for 41% of China’s total imports and exports. In the same period, China’s import and export to 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe increased by 14.7%, which was 6.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total import and export of goods. In June, the total import and export volume was 2,493.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Among them, exports were 1,377.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; Imports reached 1,115.8 billion yuan, up 6.0%. In the first half of the year, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a export delivery value of 5,716.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. In June, industrial enterprises above designated size realized export delivery value of 1,054.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%.
Seven, residents’ income grew steadily, and the employment situation was stable and positive.
In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 14,063 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and a real increase of 6.6% after deducting the price factor. According to the place of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 19,770 yuan, a nominal increase of 7.9% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.8% after deducting the price factor; The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 7142 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.8% year-on-year, and a real increase of 6.8% after deducting the price factor. The per capita income difference between urban and rural residents was 2.77, 0.02 less than the same period of last year. The median per capita disposable income of the national residents was 12,186 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.4% year-on-year. In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 4.8%, which was the same as last month and decreased by 0.1 percentage point over the same month of last year. The survey unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 4.7%, which was the same as last month and decreased by 0.2 percentage points over the same month of last year. At the end of the second quarter, the total number of rural laborers who went out to work was 180.22 million, an increase of 1.49 million or 0.8% over the same period of last year. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,661 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.
Eight, consumer prices rose moderately, and industrial prices rose steadily.
In the first half of the year, the national consumer price rose by 2.0% year-on-year, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the first quarter. By category, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 1.4%, clothing by 1.1%, housing by 2.3%, daily necessities and services by 1.6%, transportation and communication by 1.2%, education, culture and entertainment by 2.1%, medical care by 5.5% and other goods and services by 1.1%. In June, the national consumer price rose by 1.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month and a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 3.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first quarter; The purchase price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 4.4% year-on-year. In June, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 4.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and 0.3% from the previous month. The purchase price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 5.1% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
Nine, the transformation and upgrading have achieved remarkable results, and new kinetic energy has accelerated growth.
The economic structure continued to be optimized. From the perspective of industrial structure, the growth rate of added value of the tertiary industry in the first half of the year was 1.5 percentage points faster than that of the secondary industry; The proportion of GDP was 54.3%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year and 13.9 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is 78.5%, which is 47.1 percentage points higher than the total capital formation. New industries and new products are growing rapidly. From the perspective of industrial structure, the added value of strategic emerging industries in the first half of the year increased by 8.7% year-on-year, 2.0 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size. The output of new energy vehicles increased by 88.1%, industrial robots by 23.9% and integrated circuits by 15.0%. New consumption is booming. From the perspective of trade structure, the national online retail sales in the first half of the year was 4,081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 3,127.7 billion yuan, up by 29.8%, accounting for 17.4% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, up by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year; The online retail sales of non-physical goods reached 953.3 billion yuan, an increase of 30.9%. Green development has progressed steadily. From the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 3.2% in the first half of the year.
X. The structural reform of the supply side has been further promoted, and the market expectation is generally good.
Structural de-capacity continued to deepen. In the first half of the year, the utilization rate of industrial capacity in China was 76.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter and 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year. The effect of destocking is outstanding. At the end of June, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide decreased by 14.7% year-on-year. The leverage ratio and cost of enterprises continue to decline. At the end of May, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.6%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. From January to May, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 84.49 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31 yuan. Investment in the short-board sector has grown rapidly. In the first half of the year, the investment in ecological protection and environmental management and agriculture increased by 35.4% and 15.4% respectively, which was 29.4 and 9.4 percentage points faster than the total investment. The market is expected to remain prosperous. In June, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.4%, the manufacturing purchasing manager index was 51.5%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.0%, which continued to run in the expansion range.
Generally speaking, in the first half of the year, the national economy continued to develop steadily and steadily, and the favorable conditions for supporting the economy to move towards high-quality development increased, laying a good foundation for achieving the main economic and social development goals for the whole year. However, we should also see that the uncertainty of the external environment has increased, and the domestic structural adjustment is in the critical period. We must adhere to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, maintain strategic strength, adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, continue to expand effective demand, focus on revitalizing the real economy, actively respond to external challenges, prevent and resolve potential risks, guide and stabilize social expectations, and scientifically and comprehensively promote steady growth, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit people’s livelihood, and prevent risks to ensure stable and healthy economic operation.